Polling, Policy, and Public Opinion by Robert Weissberg download in ePub, pdf, iPad
Respondents may deliberately try to manipulate the outcome of a poll by e. If the results of surveys are widely publicized this effect may be magnified - a phenomenon commonly referred to as the spiral of silence. The campaign can then spend some time preparing an effective response to any likely attacks. The Literary Digest soon went out of business, while polling started to take off.
Campaigns often use these polls to test possible attack messages that their opponent may use and potential responses to those attacks. Many pollsters also split-sample.
Elmo Roper was another American pioneer in political forecasting using scientific polls. So it's no longer likely that political leaders are going to lead. Methods and techniques vary, though they are widely accepted in most areas.
If the people who do not answer have different opinions then there is bias in the results. In some places many people have only mobile telephones.
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